Current headlines surrounding the fertilizer markets tend to focus on high prices and affordability issues, especially with falling commodity prices. Ratios comparing the bushels of corn needed to buy a ton of fertilizer have, in some cases, reached record levels. Multiple factors including supply, tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and other global events are influencing markets today. Together, these factors have led to volatility in the market and current high costs.
In the US, most fertilizer inventories were depleted across the supply chain this spring and early summer. Corn acres were up 5% or more compared to 2024, leading to strong demand for all nutrients, especially nitrogen. Fall application rates should be strong, based on projected record or near record crop yields. Affordability will be a factor as growers make application rate decisions.
Potash
Global supplies are slightly tighter due to very strong demand. The US did not see a price reset for summer fill products. Costs per acre will be up slightly compared to the fall of ’24 application. Our supply for fall is mostly in place between our locations and the Prairie Du Chien terminal.
Phosphorous
Phosphorous continues to beat the same old drum. Imports are virtually nonexistent, forcing supply to come solely from US producers. The US is entering the fall application season with record low inventory levels. Even with an expected demand reduction of 1 million tons or more due to affordability issues, supply will be extremely tight this fall across the US.
AMS
AMS values retracted $100 or more per ton for summer fill product. This fill was up slightly from the previous year, however, the expectation is for AMS to be more stable in the upcoming year.
UAN
Summer fill was announced on August 11th with very limited tonnage. The lowest cost product was picked up mainly for the south with the next round of tons offered at an increased value. Producers are comfortable with their positions as most are sold out through most of 2025.Expectations are for the next offer to purchase tons will be higher than the last.
Urea
Global factors have impacted the urea market throughout the year and continue to do so. India has been actively tendering tons, the Iran/Israel conflict caused production shutdowns, and China, up until very recently, has only allowed marginal amounts of tons to be exported. These factors, coupled with strong demand in the US this spring, have prevented prices from resetting for fill tons.
Reach out to one of our agronomists to help you navigate today’s fertilizer markets and assist you in making informed decisions for your operation.
