Remember when tariffs ruled the fertilizer market narrative? That feels like a long time ago. While with nitrogen markets taking the brunt of the impact. Supply disruptions were immediate and are expected to persist through spring, reinforcing how tightly global production, logistics, and geopolitics influence U.S. fertilizer availability and pricing. On a more positive note, recent strength in grain markets has given many farmers an opportunity to act on marketing decisions.
Product Market Outlook:
UREA – Significantly impacted by the timing of the conflict. NOLA and terminal replacement costs have increased by $200+ per ton. In several cases, import tons originally destined for the U.S. were diverted to other global markets, further tightening domestic supply. This is particularly important given that U.S. domestic production does not meet total demand, leaving the market highly dependent on imports. Even if the Strait of Hormuz were to reopen immediately, additional tons would not arrive in time for most spring applications. Ongoing risks tied to reduced global nitrogen production and damage to natural gas infrastructure may continue to support elevated prices beyond this spring.
UAN – Pricing has largely followed increases in urea and ammonia. Unlike urea, the U.S. market is less reliant on imports due to significant domestic production, and inventories remain near normal seasonal levels. However, if shortages of urea or ammonia force additional demand toward UAN, pricing will react accordingly. Rising natural gas prices and higher logistics costs continue to add upward pressure to production costs.
PHOSPHORUS – Prices have moved higher, driven primarily by increased production costs tied to ammonia and sulfur. Domestic supplies remain tight heading into spring, even with demand loss due to affordability. Approximately 18–20% of globally traded phosphate fertilizers (DAP/MAP) normally transit the Strait of Hormuz, directly impacting trade flows. In addition, disruptions to sulfur exports—a key input in phosphate production—create indirect supply risk. If global geopolitical risks persist, the likelihood of a meaningful post-spring price reset diminishes.
AMS – U.S. inventories remain near normal levels for this time of year. Prices have trended steadily higher since the 2025 summer fill period, largely driven by increased ammonia and sulfur feedstock costs.
POTASH – Overall supply remains good, and potash continues to be the most affordable major nutrient relative to grain prices. Modest price increases are expected for spring product, followed by a fairly normal timing for summer price reset and fill. While fundamentals remain stable, global geopolitical and energy risks may influence future markets.
As always, we’re here to help you navigate the swings, whether you’re adjusting a plan, or just looking for a second set of eyes. Give us a call if you want to talk through options; we’ll keep watching the markets so you can keep focusing on the fieldwork.
Here’s hoping spring cooperates a little more than the markets have.
Rod Redman
Agronomy & Grain Operations Manager
